Google is having a go at predicting the Oscars. Just like Yahoo, Google is relying on search data for its predictions, while also looking at past winners for any clues.
“Last year we found that for three years running, the films that won best picture had two things in common when it came to search data,” Google explained.
“First, the winning movies had all shown an upward trend in search volume for at least four consecutive weeks during the previous year. Second, within the U.S. the winning film had the highest percentage of its searches originating from the state of New York,” it added.
Google set out to scour its data for these two things. It came up with a list of four movies that fit the pattern The Artist, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Midnight in Paris and War Horse.
But there can’t be four winners, so Google looked at its past data and found that the underdog, the one with the lowest amount of search traffic, typically wins. Judging by that, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close should be this year’s winner, but, based on search popularity alone, The Artist or Midnight in Paris are the favorites.
In the actors department, Brad Pitt is by far the most searched, throughout the past year, but that may have more to do with his status and good looks than the movie he’s being nominated for, Moneyball.
But Google found that this isn’t a great indicator and that past winners were not the top searched. With that in mind, it looks like Gary Oldman, for Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy, or George Clooney for The Descendants are the favorites.
Google has less conclusive data for the best actress nominees, but it looks like a fight between Rooney Mara, for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and Meryl Streep for her role as Margaret Thatcher in the Iron Lady. You can check out Google’s post for a more detailed analysis.